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Before OFB, there were rumours that eating cookies or spaghetti would increase a sim's chance of twins. There was also a fake cheat "twinsr2cute" which didn't do anything but the rumours swept all the sims 2 forums. Everyone was SO excited by twins.
With OFB they added the forcetwins cheat and the cheesecake. I think the in-game chance of twins might have been increased, too. As to why it's cheesecake? Not sure - maybe it was an in-joke at the studio, or maybe it's to do with pregnant women craving cheesecake? I don't think it has that association outside of the sims universe.
And yes it's always been a 100% chance. The fix is better because I would always just make them avoid cheesecake just in case. Now I can let them eat it if they want to.
Actually, is there any mod which reduces the natural chance of twins? I like using the triplets and quads mod and in some testing recently I discovered that if a sim is naturally (or cheatedly) pregnant with twins, triplets and quads won't give them a single birth unless you choose the "pick > single" option. Which means that, effectively, I have my triplets and quads odds for multiples, plus the natural chance of twins on top of that. I'll probably just reduce the trips & quads setting for twin chance to 0% (so I only get the natural twins) but it would be cool to be able to nitpick this more exactly.
I use the sims as a psychology simulator...